A Magic Bullet? The Potential Impact of E-Cigarettes on the Toll of Cigarette Smoking:

Time: 3:25 pm - 3:40 pm

Date: Thursday 3rd December

This paper reports findings from a simulation analysis that compares potential life-years gained by vaping-induced smoking cessation with potential life-years lost by vaping-induced smoking initiation in the U.S. through the year 2100. In addition to varying assumptions about the effect of vaping on smoking cessation and initiation, and the mortality implications, the analysis considers the effects of variables previously never included in such simulations; for example, which types of smokers, defined by difficulty quitting smoking, are most aided by vaping. Out of 360 possible scenarios. 357 (99%) yield positive estimates of life-years saved (LYS), most scenarios resulting in millions of individuals quitting smoking due to vaping through the year 2100. On average, vaping-induced quitters gain an extra 1.2-2.0 years of life compared to smokers who quit without vaping. While the numbers of LYS are generally large across all scenarios, they often represent a small fraction of the toll of smoking. Thus, while vaping is highly likely to reduce smoking-produced mortality, it is not “the” answer to the public health crisis created by smoking. Rather, it may well be an important tool to add to the armamentarium of effective tobacco control measures.


  • Prof Kenneth Warner Avedis Donabedian Distinguished University Professor Emeritus of Public Health and Dean Emeritus - University of Michigan School of Public Health

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